How LGA’s $2B AirTrain Would Compare to Low-Ridership NYC Bus Route

September 17, 2021

LGA AirTrain Projected Ridership Equivalent to Low Performing NYC Bus Route

Compared to New York City bus transit operations, the roughly 6,000 expected net LaGuardia AirTrain users in 2026 add up to a single underperforming 2019 city bus route.

56% of the local and Select Bus Service routes across the five boroughs had ridership at or above 6,000 weekday riders in the last year before the Covid pandemic. Busy bus routes are several multiples of this level.

LGA AirTrain projected net transit ridership in 2026 is under 1% of pre-pandemic Queens daily bus ridership (and under 2% of current, mid-pandemic ridership).

Why compare the LaGuardia AirTrain to NYC buses?

We compared estimated ridership on the LaGuardia AirTrain to city bus ridership to help the public understand how incredibly small Airtrain ridership is given its whopping $2.1B price tag. The Airtrain is not a “mega” transit project, it’s a mega-expensive airport shuttle. City bus routes are a closer comparison than the subway, because every single city subway line has far, far greater usage numbers than expected for the AirTrain. In fact, anticipated AirTrain ridership is lower than usage at two-thirds of individual subway stations across New York City in 2019.

Reinvent Albany documented the ridership projections from the Final Environmental Impact Statement and other Port Authority documents for the AirTrain project in a September 10, 2021 release, “ LaGuardia’s $2B AirTrain would be world’s most costly transit.” We found that in spite of projecting roughly 13,000 AirTrain riders per day in 2026, over half of these riders were either driving cars to the AirTrain in Willets Point or were diverted from bus or bus+subway trips being made today. The result was 5,926 net new daily transit trips generated by the $2.05 billion project.

Another reason to look at ridership on buses is the inequitable quality of transit and transportation investments in NYC. While the Port Authority proposes spending over $2 billion to generate a net 6,000 new transit trips, capital investment for buses for the entire MTA bus system for 2020-2024 was set at $3.5 billion prior to the pandemic, when city bus riders took 2.5 million trips each day. The ridership/investment mismatch is extreme and sadly unsurprising given that city bus riders are overwhelming low-income New Yorkers of color. In contrast, a LaGuardia transit access project that actually builds on Queens’ and New York City’s existing subway and bus systems would without question provide much greater transportation benefits to those using the airport, including 14,000 airport service workers, and the many more transit riders traveling near it.

LGA AirTrain net ridership is in the lower half of Queens bus routes ranked by 2019 ridership and lower than 56% of local and Select Bus routes citywide.
AirTrain projected net transit ridership is very close to 2019 ridership of the Q70 Select Bus, the sole “airport only” bus route serving a NYC airport. Other buses serving LaGuardia are the M60, Q47, Q48 and Q72.
LGA AirTrain estimated construction cost is $2.05 billion.

Capital investment for buses for the entire MTA bus system for 2020-2024 was set at $3.5 billion prior to the pandemic, an appallingly inequitable distribution of resources for a ridership with an average income below $30,000

Rank	Bus Route	Ridership
1	Q58	27,638
2	Q44 SBS	24,484
3	Q27	23,019
4	Q10	21,176
5	Q65	20,891
6	Q52/53Lcl/SBS	20,364
7	Q25	19,781
8	Q46	19,678
9	Q23	16,908
10	Q17	15,634
11	Q60	13,630
12	Q20	13,629
13	Q66	13,428
14	Q43	13,325
15	Q88	11,099
16	Q5	10,883
17	Q6	10,720
18	Q85	10,699
19	Q111	10,680
20	Q8	10,098
21	Q54	10,094
22	Q69	9,735
23	Q32	9,683
24	Q12	9,486
25	Q30	9,467
26	Q28	8,723
27	Q18	8,707
28	Q4	8,640
29	Q47	8,469
30	Q49	8,458
31	Q38	8,400
32	Q64	8,352
33	Q3	8,252
34	Q83	8,012
35	Q37	7,876
36	Q13	7,369
37	Q33	7,322
38	Q24	7,046
39	Q41	7,000
40	Q56	6,989
41	Q34	6,839
42	Q59	6,814
43	Q72	6,461
44	Q55	6,419
45	Q22	6,046
46	LGA AirTrain 2026 ridership net of diverted bus/subway riders & riders reaching Willets Point by car	5,926
47	Q36	5,908
48	Q70 SBS (sole “airport only” bus route)	5,829
49	Q77	5,726
50	Q15	5,660
51	Q114	5,523
52	Q110	5,505
53	Q31	5,465
54	Q76	5,350
55	Q2	5,211
56	Q39	5,189
57	Q112	5,189
58	Q29	5,063
59	Q7	4,908
60	Q50	4,645
61	Q40	4,620
62	Q9	4,579
63	Q11	4,239
64	Q84	4,180
65	Q16	4,127
66	Q100	4,064
67	Q1	4,012
68	Q35	3,954
69	Q101	3,873
70	Q113	3,686
71	Q19	3,253
72	Q48	2,770
73	Q102	2,749
74	Q67	2,572
75	Q21	2,470
76	Q104	2,231
77	Q103	1,746
78	Q26	1,412
79	Q42	1,158

Note with table:
A close reading of the AirTrain’s environmental impact statement found that in spite of projecting roughly 13,000 AirTrain riders per day in 2026, over half of these riders were either predicted to drive cars to the AirTrain in Willets Point or were diverted from bus or bus+subway trips being made today. The result was 5,926 net new daily transit trips generated by the $2.05 billion project. See “LaGuardia’s $2B AirTrain would be world’s most costly transit.”

Sources:
LGA AirTrain FEIS Appendix B “Project Description” pp 9-11, FEIS Appendix C “Ridership”
Available at https://www.lgaaccesseis.com/final-eis-document

LGA Ground Access Mode Choice Model and AirTrain Ridership Forecast. Port Authority 2018
https://www.anewlga.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/LGA-AirTrain-Ridership-Report.pdf

Subway & Bus Ridership for 2019
MTA: https://new.mta.info/agency/new-york-city-transit/subway-bus-ridership-2019