How LGA’s $2B AirTrain Would Compare to Low-Ridership NYC Bus Route

     

LGA AirTrain Projected Ridership Equivalent to Low Performing NYC Bus Route

Compared to New York City bus transit operations, the roughly 6,000 expected net LaGuardia AirTrain users in 2026 add up to a single underperforming 2019 city bus route. 

56% of the local and Select Bus Service routes across the five boroughs had ridership at or above 6,000 weekday riders in the last year before the Covid pandemic. Busy bus routes are several multiples of this level. 

LGA AirTrain projected net transit ridership in 2026 is under 1% of pre-pandemic Queens daily bus ridership (and under 2% of current, mid-pandemic ridership).

Why compare the LaGuardia AirTrain to NYC buses? 

We compared estimated ridership on the LaGuardia AirTrain to city bus ridership to help the public understand how incredibly small Airtrain ridership is given its whopping $2.1B price tag. The Airtrain is not a “mega” transit project, it’s a mega-expensive airport shuttle. City bus routes are a closer comparison than the subway, because every single city subway line has far, far greater usage numbers than expected for the AirTrain. In fact, anticipated AirTrain ridership is lower than usage at two-thirds of individual subway stations across New York City in 2019.

Reinvent Albany documented the ridership projections from the Final Environmental Impact Statement and other Port Authority documents for the AirTrain project in a September 10, 2021 release, LaGuardia’s $2B AirTrain would be world’s most costly transit.” We found that in spite of projecting roughly 13,000 AirTrain riders per day in 2026, over half of these riders were either driving cars to the AirTrain in Willets Point or were diverted from bus or bus+subway trips being made today. The result was 5,926 net new daily transit trips generated by the $2.05 billion project. 

Another reason to look at ridership on buses is the inequitable quality of transit and transportation investments in NYC. While the Port Authority proposes spending over $2 billion to generate a net 6,000 new transit trips, capital investment for buses for the entire MTA bus system for 2020-2024 was set at $3.5 billion prior to the pandemic, when city bus riders took 2.5 million trips each day. The ridership/investment mismatch is extreme and sadly unsurprising given that city bus riders are overwhelming low-income New Yorkers of color. In contrast, a LaGuardia transit access project that actually builds on Queens’ and New York City’s existing subway and bus systems would without question provide much greater transportation benefits to those using the airport, including 14,000 airport service workers, and the many more transit riders traveling near it. 

  • LGA AirTrain net ridership is in the lower half of Queens bus routes ranked by 2019 ridership and lower than 56% of local and Select Bus routes citywide.
  • AirTrain projected net transit ridership is very close to 2019 ridership of the Q70 Select Bus, the sole “airport only” bus route serving a NYC airport. Other buses serving LaGuardia are the M60, Q47, Q48 and Q72.
  • LGA AirTrain estimated construction cost is $2.05 billion.

Capital investment for buses for the entire MTA bus system for 2020-2024 was set at $3.5 billion prior to the pandemic, an appallingly inequitable distribution of resources for a ridership with an average income below $30,000

RankBus RouteRidership
1Q5827,638
2Q44 SBS24,484
3Q2723,019
4Q1021,176
5Q6520,891
6Q52/53Lcl/SBS20,364
7Q2519,781
8Q4619,678
9Q2316,908
10Q1715,634
11Q6013,630
12Q2013,629
13Q6613,428
14Q4313,325
15Q8811,099
16Q510,883
17Q610,720
18Q8510,699
19Q11110,680
20Q810,098
21Q5410,094
22Q699,735
23Q329,683
24Q129,486
25Q309,467
26Q288,723
27Q188,707
28Q48,640
29Q478,469
30Q498,458
31Q388,400
32Q648,352
33Q38,252
34Q838,012
35Q377,876
36Q137,369
37Q337,322
38Q247,046
39Q417,000
40Q566,989
41Q346,839
42Q596,814
43Q726,461
44Q556,419
45Q226,046
46LGA AirTrain 2026 ridership net of diverted bus/subway riders & riders reaching Willets Point by car5,926
47Q365,908
48Q70 SBS (sole “airport only” bus route)5,829
49Q775,726
50Q155,660
51Q1145,523
52Q1105,505
53Q315,465
54Q765,350
55Q25,211
56Q395,189
57Q1125,189
58Q295,063
59Q74,908
60Q504,645
61Q404,620
62Q94,579
63Q114,239
64Q844,180
65Q164,127
66Q1004,064
67Q14,012
68Q353,954
69Q1013,873
70Q1133,686
71Q193,253
72Q482,770
73Q1022,749
74Q672,572
75Q212,470
76Q1042,231
77Q1031,746
78Q261,412
79Q421,158

Note with table:
A close reading of the AirTrain’s environmental impact statement found that in spite of projecting roughly 13,000 AirTrain riders per day in 2026, over half of these riders were either predicted to drive cars to the AirTrain in Willets Point or were diverted from bus or bus+subway trips being made today. The result was 5,926 net new daily transit trips generated by the $2.05 billion project. See “LaGuardia’s $2B AirTrain would be world’s most costly transit.

Sources:
LGA AirTrain FEIS Appendix B “Project Description” pp 9-11, FEIS Appendix C “Ridership”
Available at https://www.lgaaccesseis.com/final-eis-document

LGA Ground Access Mode Choice Model and AirTrain Ridership Forecast. Port Authority 2018
https://www.anewlga.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/LGA-AirTrain-Ridership-Report.pdf

Subway & Bus Ridership for 2019
MTA: https://new.mta.info/agency/new-york-city-transit/subway-bus-ridership-2019